论文摘要
选用1951-2011年秦岭-淮河地区气象站点数据资料,研究年平均降水量和年平均气温的时空变化特征,探讨ENSO事件对旱涝灾害的影响.结果表明:①秦岭淮河地区淮河平原比秦巴山地的年平均降水量下降速率快,分别为-7.9 mm/10 a,-5.7 mm/10 a,淮河平原比秦巴山地的年平均气温上升速率快,分别为0.15℃/10 a,0.09℃/10 a;且年平均降水量在1980 s发生突变且呈现出下降的趋势,年平均气温在1960 s发生突变且呈现出上升的趋势;②El Nino事件导致降水减少,且在滞后3个月时最明显,其相关系数为-0.73;La Nina事件导致降水增多,且在滞后4个月时最明显,其相关系数为0.75;El Nino事件导致气温升高,且在滞后1个月时最明显,其相关系数为0.77;La Nina事件导致气温下降,且在滞后2个月时最明显,其相关系数为-0.67;③ENSO事件与旱涝灾害关系显著,有11次旱灾与El Nino事件同期发生,有8次涝灾与La Nina事件同期发生,且ENSO事件导致旱涝灾害程度更大,最严重时分别为极旱和极涝.
论文目录
文章来源
类型: 期刊论文
作者: 盛宇裕,毕硕本,路明月,赵峰,孙力
关键词: 事件,降水,气温,秦岭淮河地区,旱涝灾害
来源: 河南大学学报(自然科学版) 2019年04期
年度: 2019
分类: 基础科学
专业: 气象学
单位: 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院
基金: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271410,41071253)
分类号: P426.616
DOI: 10.15991/j.cnki.411100.2019.04.005
页码: 418-428
总页数: 11
文件大小: 4519K
下载量: 211
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