论文摘要
使用新的数据集对由气候变化与监测指数专家团队(ETCCDI)定义的温度极端指数TX10p、TN10p、TX90p、TN90p、CSDI、WSDI的时空分布特点进行了研究.这6个指数都是基于百分位数的指数,通过半参数分位数回归的方法计算而得.我们在超出率序列中去除了自相关的影响,从而保证了计算分位数时的独立性条件.我们利用参与多模型比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)的19种全球气候模型,在历史和3种典型浓度路径RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5模拟了6个指数的变化.根据新的结果,中国的高温事件在未来有持续上升趋势,而低温事件有减少趋势.到21世纪末,在RCP26、RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下,TX90p、TN90p和WSDI会显著上升,而TX10p、TN10p和CSDI会下降.在中国,低温事件频率下降最大的区域是东北地区,而高温事件频率上升最显著的区域是华南和西南地区.
论文目录
文章来源
类型: 期刊论文
作者: 李灵珊
关键词: 指数,半参数分位数回归,百分位数指数,典型浓度路径
来源: 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版) 2019年01期
年度: 2019
分类: 基础科学
专业: 气象学
单位: 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院
基金: Supported by The National Natural Science Foundation of China(41675044)
分类号: P467
DOI: 10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2019.01.011
页码: 101-113
总页数: 13
文件大小: 1561K
下载量: 117
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标签：指数论文; 半参数分位数回归论文; 百分位数指数论文; 典型浓度路径论文;