论文摘要
Aiming at the complexity and randomness of the precipitation sequence in Beijing, a Markov chain prediction model was established. Based on the precipitation in Beijing from 1951 to 2013, the precipitation in 2014 and 2015 was predicted. The results show that:(1) The sequence of precipitation in Beijing from 1951 to 2013 satisfies the Markov property when the significance level a=0.1;(2) It is predicted that the precipitation states in Beijing in 2014 and 2015 are weak dry, with the precipitation of 537.9 mm and 525.5 mm, respectively. The relative errors with actual precipitation are 16.55% and 14.59%, respectively. It can be seen that it is reasonable to use the weighted Markov chain model to predict the precipitation in Beijing.
论文目录
文章来源
类型: 国际会议
作者: Tong LIU,Xiao-hua YANG,Qi-rui XUE,Fan SONG
来源: 2019 International Conference on Information Technology, Electrical and Electronic Engineering (ITEEE 2019) 2019-01-20
年度: 2019
分类: 基础科学
专业: 数学,气象学
单位: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University
分类号: P426.6;O211.62
DOI: 10.26914/c.cnkihy.2019.078431
页码: 46-50
总页数: 5
文件大小: 815k