CMIP5模式对近30年沃克环流强度变化模拟的不足及成因分析

论文摘要

太平洋沃克环流（PacificWalkerCirculation,PWC）是热带太平洋上空至关重要的大气环流系统,但其在全球变暖背景下的长期变化仍存在争议,换而言之,沃克环流增强或减弱仍是有待回答的科学问题之一。观测表明近30年PWC呈增强趋势,而气候模式无法得出观测的趋势。文章分析了参加第五次耦合模式比较计划（CoupledModel Inter-comparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5）的18个耦合模式模拟的PWC变化。结果表明,大部分耦合模式能够较好地再现PWC的气候态分布特征,但不能给出其加强的趋势。究其原因,主要取决于模式对海表温度（SST）变化的模拟能力,能模拟出PWC加强的耦合模式,其模拟的SST趋势分布与观测相近[即类拉尼娜（LaNi?a）型],但仍存在一定差异;而模拟出PWC减弱的耦合模式,其模拟的SST趋势分布表现为类厄尔尼诺（ElNi?o）型,这与观测不符。对于后者,如果用观测的SST驱动其大气模式却能够模拟出PWC的加强,从另一方面也说明了SST变化对于PWC长期变化的主导作用。因此, CMIP5模式要想合理地预估PWC在全球变暖背景下的变化,需要提高对于热带太平洋SST变化的模拟能力。

论文目录

文章来源

类型: 期刊论文

作者: 林书恒,管玉平,张邦林

关键词: 第五次耦合模式比较计划,沃克环流,大气环流模式比较计划,海表面温度趋势分布型

来源: 热带海洋学报 2019年05期

年度: 2019

分类: 基础科学

专业: 气象学,海洋学

单位: 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所),中国科学院大学,珠海区域气候-环境-生态预测预警协同创新中心,中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所区域数值天气预报重点实验室

基金: 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506903),国家自然科学重点基金项目(41830538),热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所)自主项目(LTOZZ1802)~~

分类号: P732.6

页码: 52-67

总页数: 16

文件大小: 2754K

下载量: 94

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标签：第五次耦合模式比较计划论文;  沃克环流论文;  大气环流模式比较计划论文;  海表面温度趋势分布型论文;